DICKENSIAN VISION OF THINGS TO COME …
Tuesday, January 17, 2023
Starting in January, whether right after holidays or mini-vacation break – everyone has their pace set for launching out of starting blocks for another competitive middle-distance race/year; no need to sprint yet, set a steady pace, no need to be out front or outrageous, so competitors conspire to borrow your ideas and beat you with them, or to scoff as the prove you the fool.
Not a good strategy to lag the field either because catching up – even at the best of times, can be the worst of times.
As I observe myself and my industry contemporaries, a peculiar study in humanity, to say the least, I see everyone still emerging from post-pandemic foggy times. However, most won’t admit to that, trying to figure out what the new year will hold and how they can find a handle to hold onto so they can catch a ride and be on the best path attached to the divine omniscience of the wisest keynote speaker, talking-head pundit, or the boozy late-night predictions of daytime-smart-people …
Some will pick brilliantly and be heralded heroes a year from now.
Most will not.
Much bravado is an industry norm, as are so many where exuding clairvoyant confidence is currency, because everyone in every business, large or small, is nervous and hopes someone is giving them the perfect answers and a fail-safe map to follow– wondering if they’ve got the best survive and thrive strategy as they resume communicating with everyone, attending conferences and networking events. Nobody is sure, but they constantly hope someone on the panel or a keynote speaker will predict correctly or at least have a message of which trend to follow or an inspiration for a new way to get and stay motivated to be successful.
Many of my contemporaries in the commercial real estate and retail industries are packing their bags for the annual Whistler ICSC Conference, where the networking sessions, marketing appointments, and education sessions squeezed between parties and skiing will be non-stop concurrent glad-handing, back-slapping affairs where everyone talks a good story, an upbeat one, but spends most of their sober moments listening intently, trying to sift through everyone’s blather and patter to take home a vision, some clarity, on what to expect to unfold in 2023.
Many will feel like they're chasing the caboose on a train that just left the station – because they are, but they’ve been told there is a Kool-aid at these conferences, and they want to drink their fill and have a good to boot.
Sure, they’ll come back with industry gossip on who is up, who is down for the count, and which sectors to bet on being winners. It’s a ‘retail’ conference, but the uncertainty goes well beyond the travails of Amazon and Shopify – because everyone attending is either a player on the landlord/developer side of life or retailer, but predominantly populated by bankers, brokers, and leasing agents. Institutional investors will be in short supply because they mostly read tea leaves from streets named Bay, Wall, Lombard, and Sand Hill Road.
Aside from gym memberships bulging because overstuffed Christmas eating exacts its toll, or self-help books leaping off store shelves, there is a collective mood out there – to be bullish, to be positive, to ignore reality and ignore negativity as experts and economists the world over predict a likely recession, and our governments in Alberta and Ottawa give us cause for pain each time we see or hear another salvo of the bow to defend or advance their position, or to attack the other side.
Nobody knows with certainty; nobody wants to get caught napping.
I’ve been in this ‘first-half’ of January mode for many years; it’s partly stopping the bad habits, trying to practice tried-and-true habits we’ve fallen out of, and taking the first steps on new initiatives. That would be great if everyone else would postpone their starts till February – please!
~ I’m getting calls, email invites and ‘can we have a chat’ from so many folks; some, past acquaintances and business connections are understandable, but add to that all the ‘new things’ coming way at the same time as I’ve been sending all my messages outward too … it’s too much all at once to do well.
Another I do, and I suspect others do too, is make ‘notes to self’ so that next December’s 2024 planning time will contain a reminder of this and mandate me to create a ‘better strategy’ for that.
But who remembers or can find their many ‘note to self’ through the year – I’ve never been good at collating and keeping those in a ‘separate but findable’ place.
For some thoughts on A.I. and whether it will remain above the fold all year or be only a bunch of noise about something not yet ready to take over the world, tune in tomorrow for ‘my take’ …
Reader feedback:
I think you’re on to something here Mark!, JJ, Calgary, AB