ELECTION READINESS
Wednesday, March 15, 2023
The 15th, most months, is not a notable occasion.
But beware the Ides of March, a reminder of politics and back-stabbing – both theatrical and political.
And here we are at the intersection of politics and theatre.
Whether far away in ancient Rome or here in modern Alberta, readiness for political conflicts, deposing leaders and the fight for control is a near-blood sport.
Prior to the ‘Dropping of the Writ,’ which is the starting gun of official campaigning - long before that, the campaign in Alberta began when Danielle Smith was sworn in not long ago to replace Jason Kenny.
Thanks to the media telling it like it is most days, the Premier and her cabinet are running around the province, making promises while governing based on not yet passed budget as if the spending had been approved. It's mostly making announcements as a government that are really campaign platform planks. Cynics will say, "Well, that's politics" ...
The gloves are coming off; the policy talk will shift from the legislature steps to household doorsteps, as the battle of Alberta will be fought by teams in opposing colours, but not on a rink or gridiron. Many pundits predict this year's election will be a battle for Calgary.
I disagree. Parties and their leaders are prepping their talking points, practicing their stump speeches and preparing the ground by planting seeds of doubt wherever they can, but I recall that's voters marking ballots who decide what the dominant issue is.
Is it the economy?
Anywhere else in the country, it might be, but Albertans are feeling pretty good these days about how we are doing. Jobs are plentiful, and most things are not in short supply, yet the price of everything is up sharply – as it is in the rest of the country – in a post-pandemic, tweaked by bankers and guessed at by most economists.
Everybody, except for my view, thinks this coming election is about party v. party, money in people’s pockets v. money in the treasury and every other partisan issue.
I see it as two things, two factors more than issues.
The first is whether voters care. We’ve seen that play out badly before – when the Jim Prentice government called a snap election they had no legal requirement to call, conservative supporters punished his government for that, and when he said stupid things about his opponent, women voters punished him for that. I liked him personally and had a lot of respect for him, but he was his own worst enemy as premier and party leader for some boneheaded moves …
I think the other issue is trust, plain and simple.
If Premier Smith continues as she has been – romancing voters with their own money, saying things because she thinks they sound good, before being certain they were good ideas and good policy (for example – buying $80 million in overprices children’s pain meds from overseas by ‘waving her magic bravado wand’), resulting in too much of it, too late, too expensive - but her government sweeps it under the carpet rather than facing facts: when you import drugs to Canada, the federal government rules. There are many examples - I won't litigate them here, and a noisy campaign will air a lot of soiled laundry ...
Where the opposition party, led by former Premier Rachel Notley, is the favourite to win will be on trust-factor issues.
And we’ve had her for a four-year stint during extraordinary challenges. Albertans remember, many of them quietly, that she was a steady and reasonable leader who worked for all Albertans.
Albertans are blessed with abundant resources and fair-minded citizens.
We’ve had our go at having a first woman premier (Alison Redford, who was driven from office), a second (Rachel Notley, who served a full four-year term), and Danielle Smith, who has barely got the chair warm.
Soon, we’re going to have our fourth, but the question is, ‘which one?’
If voters care, this could be close fought and highly consequential election – but if they don’t care, if they stay home, then it could be a close race.
I doubt this will be an election result anyone will like; after two elections in a row with strong mandates - this one might be close.
I like thin majorities and minority governments in Canada - they give us cranky but compromising elected officials, pragmatism and more transparency than we usually see.
Every party has been singing their election readiness tunes internally and preparing the ground for all the seeds they’ve been planting, so they are expecting a spring season of regime change or avoidance of regime change, depending on which camp you are in, and fringe parties barely scratch the surface because they are never ready to step into governing …
Or so it seemed until a fringe party came to power in Alberta in May 2015 when Jim Prentice and his conservative government made too many ridiculous unforced errors, proving their lack of readiness because they assumed a snap election would reveal their opponents were not prepared, but they were.
But parties too often swallow their talking points whole …
They forget the other side of reality, not their readiness vs. their opponent’s preparation, but instead that election readiness is one of voter sentiment.
Are voters ready for a change?
Are they content or restless?
What will be interesting to watch this spring will be, I believe, the degree to which the pandemic impacts we’ve been through and our re-ordering of our lives that continues to unfold is the degree to which we are not predictable.
What makes voters happy, what makes them intolerant, and what energizes them – is it traditional behaviour/issues that drive turn-out?
Do they want the ship to be steered as it has been, which is questionably by the current premier who spent so much time back-stabbing in recent years (and expects voters to forget she was a big part of the ‘unforced errors’ of Mr. Prentice) but they should also remember her time out of office as one of the key rivals to uniter-Kenny, and her leadership contender rivals. I realize ‘that’s politics’ as they all will remind us, but how do voters see the ship and are they comfortable with the people at the helm? Many on her team, it could be argued, are waiting for her to make her brand of unforced errors.
The leader of the NDP, Rachel Notley, has been premier and led Alberta for four years through challenging times and turned out not to be the horror show many predicted, and she’s seeking a mandate again. Her party seems ready too.
But are the voters ready?
Will they come out or stay home?
As spring arrives, it's time for farmers and gardeners to plant seeds and time for political campaigns to plant seeds of doubt.
Instead, I'd like them to plant seeds of hope. Our province is strong; its people are hard-working and caring citizens - proud Canadians first and proud Albertans every day.