CERTAINTY MATTERS
Thursday, March 9, 2023
If people are not pressed to decide, what’s the rush?
It is partly about time, timing and being ready, and that comes to a head when it does – and then, having certainty pushes you forward.
Conversely, uncertainty can stop you in your tracks.
Yesterday, I knew I would complete my donation day questionnaire before going to the blood donor clinic.
I felt sure they would tell me to drink more water next time because they always do.
But I have been binge-drinking the wet stuff to plump my veins and hydrate so my blood would flow faster (it was 15 minutes last – yikes). I resolved to be better prepared each time, but the last time was embarrassing so I would be better prepared for a good donation.
I am told each donation of 500ml contributes to saving or extending four lives. Giving a poorer quality/quantity limited by maxing out time and poor flow means a smaller donation, and I am certainly intent on improving my performance.
Also, I knew for certain the Bank of Canada would announce its March interest rate setting.
Nobody can be certain in advance – it is all been best guesses, but everybody in my industry and our clients want certainty and want rates steady or coming down. Still, after recent from the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, it’s not looking good in the U.S. with likely further rate increases ahead.
Certainty helps people make decisions confidently, which does not mean they make good decisions, just that they make them with comfort and far less stress than if they were not confident. That confidence involves clarity too, so I will not try to dissect that but instead focus on the certainty v. uncertainty elements.
It is a good decision if you feel good about making it, and even better if it turns out well. On the other hand, how can any decision we are fretting about from uncertainty ever turn out well?
What I mean is it’s a package deal. 1) the certainty and confidence to make the decision; 2) the waiting to see how things turn out; 3) accepting the result of that decision and living with it, good or bad, feeling comfortable with the process …
But how can we enter into a decision, especially a large one with costly or dangerous potential consequences, if we are not clear and confident in how we feel, what we want, and sure we want the effects of things working out well and that we can live with and manage the fallout and costs to heart and wallet if things turn out badly?
I’m not just talking about what we read on the front page and financial pages – the fretting over interest rates, employment, and the economy – whether policymakers and leaders are confident in their decisions, and whether they can live with the consequences if things go badly, and calculating too, speculating on the upside as to whether they’ll benefit from an excellent outcome to leverage that decision into re-election, promotion, profits and enhanced reputation.
On a closer-to-home, real-time, personal pockets issue, home ownership choices – to buy, sell, refinance, move to higher or lower cost neighbourhood or housing type. We read stories by journalists who do not understand property, economics, or people. Worse, they interview bankers, economists, and politicians for the material. Still, they do not learn what drives decision-making for the market-making choices – the buyers and sellers, to understand what they do and why they do it.
People buy or sell based on their needs. Which way the economic wind is blowing matters little if they have an urgent need – like wanting to buy or rent when there is little supply, which will drive up prices through competition, but before that chicken hatches, we start with the egg that comes first.
Certainty and confidence are crucial to making good decisions, especially if we have mulled over for a long while about something important.
We see this in the real estate business, and market readers often get it wrong. They say the market is up, or down, or trending in some fashion. They will struggle to explain why the market is robust in one place when it’s in the dumper somewhere else (i.e., Calgary right now vs. the rest of the country) because analysts crunch numbers, measure supply v. demand and want the interest rate and inflation barometers to move in support of buyers, or sellers. But they miss the point.
Yesterday I was certain of my morning – it began by completing my ‘donation day questionnaire’ for Canada blood services online before heading down there. I was certain I would spend longer in the in-person Q&A and getting hooked up (20 minutes) than in the actual bloodletting (5 ½ minutes). The 'eat cookies and sugary drink après-donation' usually takes 10 minutes – another thing I was certain about. Seeing a friend/colleague produced a tremendous 45-minute conversation, so I returned to the office, sure I was way behind on my day - which I was. I ended the work day way behind, then dinner with a friend, and went back to the office to polish this piece and load it up for certain delivery this morning.
Also, in the air supply yesterday – affecting market worries on both sides of the 49th parallel, interest rate concerns – and area of great uncertainty, fear rates would go up in Canada based on recent events in the U.S. and intentions of the Federal Reserve Chairman about raising rates higher to cool the economy. There was unfounded concern that the Bank of Canada might follow suit, but they did not. Instead, as widely reported and expected, the Governor of the Bank of Canada held rates steady with the March announcement.
I have been working to be more efficient – not at doing more, not at doing less – which, coupled with chasing fewer lower percentage opportunities, ought to make for free time and a more relaxed demeanour…
I was hopeful my day yesterday would be steady and not wildly emotional. Thanks to caring thoughts, calls and notes from friends, the day turned to be pretty good day. The work that didn’t get done that matters most will be top priority, I’m certain of it!
Reader feedback:
A NICE LIFE, gone but never forgotten
Very nice thoughts about your father, Mark. I can identify with the many missed opportunities to have shown my appreciation for my parents’ love, support, acceptance and guidance. Perhaps it is the passage of time, and with it, reflection. The advent of having children and grandchildren is when I could see the road travelled by them. Only now, we have better roads, google maps and access to a proliferation of information regarding the importance of understanding our emotions and feeling free to share them. The things I should have said. The appreciation I should have shown. I hope I am a better person, a better brother, husband, parent and grandfather for reflecting on what I neglected in telling my parents how much they meant to me, RT, White Rock, BC
The notion that the relationship changes after a death was something of a revelation, RH, Calgary, AB
A very nice tribute. I echo your thoughts on the relationship stages. Thanks for making me reflect on my own relationship with my father today. All the best, SC, Chestermere, AB
Awe, Mark, you have brought tears to my eyes this morning (good ones, not to regret) as I too reminisce with you…. deeply meaningful to read about your relationship with your dad…and thought provoking…. never considered the division of the relationship with my parents; bit that too makes perfect sense, SF, Lethbridge, AB